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Wednesday, 18 August 2010 20:43 |
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There are several commentators who argue that this is a normal economic recovery, but nothing could be further from the truth. Both nominal and real GDP growth are below the average registered during the previous ten economic recoveries at similar stages in the cycle – the disappointing performance in the current recovery has occurred in spite of gargantuan fiscal stimulus and aggressive monetary easing. A more detailed analysis shows that employment has dropped in early-recovery for the first time in post-war history, while corporate earnings have soared. It is clear that the Obama Administration is failing to deliver on its promises and a sound thrashing can be expected in the mid-term elections. Welcome to the new normal.
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Growth in Output, Employment, Profits & Stock Prices One Year After Recession Ends
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Recessions
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Nominal GDP
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Real GDP
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Employment
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S&P Earnings
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S&P 500
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1948/49
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7.3%
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7.8%
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4.4%
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5.8%
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25.0%
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1953/54
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7.6%
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6.5%
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2.9%
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16.1%
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30.9%
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1957/58
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9.5%
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7.8%
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3.4%
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– 1.0%
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34.9%
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1960/61
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9.4%
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7.7%
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1.4%
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9.1%
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12.9%
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1969/70
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8.3%
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2.9%
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2.1%
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– 7.3%
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10.1%
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1973/75
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13.6%
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6.3%
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3.3%
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2.5%
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20.7%
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1980
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15.0%
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4.5%
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1.9%
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4.3%
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7.8%
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1981/82
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9.9%
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5.8%
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3.6%
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– 1.9%
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19.6%
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1990/91
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5.4%
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2.7%
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0.4%
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– 10.8%
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9.4%
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2001
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3.9%
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1.9%
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0.2%
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18.5%
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– 19.5%
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Averages
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9.0%
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5.4%
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2.4%
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3.5%
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15.2%
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2007/09
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4.1%
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3.2%
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– 0.7%
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84.2%
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17.0%
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