The New Normal PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 18 August 2010 20:43

There are several commentators who argue that this is a normal economic recovery, but nothing could be further from the truth.  Both nominal and real GDP growth are below the average registered during the previous ten economic recoveries at similar stages in the cycle – the disappointing performance in the current recovery has occurred in spite of gargantuan fiscal stimulus and aggressive monetary easing.  A more detailed analysis shows that employment has dropped in early-recovery for the first time in post-war history, while corporate earnings have soared.  It is clear that the Obama Administration is failing to deliver on its promises and a sound thrashing can be expected in the mid-term elections.  Welcome to the new normal.

Growth in Output, Employment, Profits & Stock Prices One Year After Recession Ends

Recessions

Nominal GDP

Real GDP

Employment

S&P Earnings

S&P 500

1948/49

7.3%

7.8%

4.4%

5.8%

25.0%

1953/54

7.6%

6.5%

2.9%

16.1%

30.9%

1957/58

9.5%

7.8%

3.4%

– 1.0%

34.9%

1960/61

9.4%

7.7%

1.4%

9.1%

12.9%

1969/70

8.3%

2.9%

2.1%

– 7.3%

10.1%

1973/75

13.6%

6.3%

3.3%

2.5%

20.7%

1980

15.0%

4.5%

1.9%

4.3%

7.8%

1981/82

9.9%

5.8%

3.6%

– 1.9%

19.6%

1990/91

5.4%

2.7%

0.4%

– 10.8%

9.4%

2001

3.9%

1.9%

0.2%

18.5%

– 19.5%

Averages

9.0%

5.4%

2.4%

3.5%

15.2%

2007/09

4.1%

3.2%

– 0.7%

84.2%

17.0%

 

 

Comments  

 
+1 #2 2010-08-19 09:14
One explanation amongst others, for the weak recovery must be the indebtedness of the American Consumer. In the last 20 years the average industrial wage has stagnated relative to GDP. This may be good for corporate earnings but the flip side is that growing consumption has been paid for by the use of credit and not wages. Under- consumption and lack of demand is a real problem. Maybe I'm missing something here, but it seems to me, the only solution to this, is to rebalance the economy by making consumers wealthier. If it won’t come about through wage rises (weak unions and government fiscal inertia) then how is the rebalancing going to happen. America does not have a large enough export market to pay for consumption, Monetarist policy is ineffective when real rates dip below zero and Quantitative Easing seems only to keep asset prices high without dealing with the actual debt. Deflationary times.
Quote
 
 
0 #1 2010-08-19 08:21
Neither GWBush not Obama believe in the strength of the market to recover employment but perhaps this time the Pres should be exhorting the economic freedoms of the West. How else are we to differentiate from China-state intervention.
Quote
 

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